(RepublicanInformer.com)- American presidential elections are often a battle for just a handful of marginal states, simply because much of the United States is already split along party lines. Some states lean Democrat and some lean Republican, but some are staunchly Democrat and others staunchly Republican.
This partisan voting trend is analyzed by the Cook Partisan Voting Index, a measurement of how strongly different parts of the United States lean towards one party or another. The index analyses how people vote in congressional districts but also uses presidential election data to see the likelihood that a state will vote for a candidate of a specific party.
Using the Cook Partisan Voting Index, based on data from the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections, it’s possible to see the top states that consistently vote Democrats. Today we’ll examine the top five Democrat-leaning states who supported the Democratic nominee in 2012 and 2016…even if they voted differently in other elections!
How the Score Works
Before we look at the data, let’s consider how the scores work. The Partisan Voting Index compares the average Democrat and Republican share of the presidential vote over the last two elections, meaning the data updates every four years.
The Cook PVI is displayed in the format of a letter – D or R depending on the party – as well as a plus sign, and then a number. That number reflects the strength of the partisanship in favor of the party, which is displayed in the letter.
The Top Five Democrat-leaning States
These are the top five Democrat-leaning states based on the 2012 and 2016 races.
1. Hawaii – D+18
Hawaii, the American state and island in the Pacific Ocean, is the most heavily Democrat-leaning state in recent presidential elections.
The state has supported Democratic presidential candidates in all but two of the elections it has taken part in since 1960. The only two Republican candidates state has voted for were Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan.
2. Vermont – D+15
Closely behind Hawaii is the state of Vermont. Interestingly, the state is home to far-left socialist Senator Bernie Sanders but also has a Republican governor. It’s one of our states that used to be truly independent but has a history of voting differently. In fact, it’s the only state to have ever voted for a presidential candidate representing the Anti-Masonic Party.
3. California – D+12
California is heavily Democrat, but mostly in its cities. Much of the rest of California does in face vote Republican, but when it comes to presidential elections, it’s all but certain that the Democrat candidate will win.
California has a Democratic governor, Democratic senators, and only 8 Republican members of the House compared to 45 Democratic members.
4. Maryland – D+12
Maryland has a Republican governor but is heavily Democrat when it comes to presidential elections and the House of Representatives. 2017 data showed that 54.9% of voters in Maryland were Democrats.
The state has 7 Democratic representatives in the House and only one Republican, according to pre-2020 November election data.
5. Massachusetts – D+12
Massachusetts is another state with a Republican governor, but Democrat leanings in presidential elections. The state’s House makeup is also entirely Democratic, pre-2020 November elections. And even if that changed post-November 2020, the state is unlikely to become