CIA Insider Says Invasion Of Taiwan Won’t Be A Surprise

( A seasoned CIA analyst warned on Monday that if China decided to invade Taiwan in the future, it wouldn’t be a “strategic surprise” because a statewide buildup would probably be apparent many months to a year in advance.

John Culver, a 35-year veteran of the agency and its top intelligence officer for East Asia for three of those years, asserts that the absence of a significant Chinese military mobilization is proof that Beijing has not yet started the essential preparations for an invasion of the island nation.

In a piece for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank, Culver batted down rumors that a conflict in the Taiwan Strait might be imminent. Senior American officials brought up the prospect, and President Joe Biden promised in September to step in if a crisis arose.

Retired Adm. Phil Davidson, the former commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, warned Congress last year that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan might occur in 2027.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, Gen. Mark Milley, concurred with Davidson’s schedule, which would coincide with the People’s Liberation Army’s 100th anniversary (PLA).

But if war is Beijing’s intention, Culver added, “there need to be trustworthy signs that it is approaching.” Culver is currently a senior researcher at the Atlantic Council think tank’s Global China Hub.

Culver said it almost surely wouldn’t be subtle. Western and Taiwanese intelligence agencies would notice warning signs a year in advance, such as an increase in missile production and indications that the Chinese leadership was taking precautions to protect its military and economy from impending Western sanctions.

According to Culver, the PLA would also stop the majority of routine training three to six months in advance and complete maintenance on almost all significant equipment. Service members would be called back to duty and restricted to their garrisons or ships across the PLA, with leave being revoked.

The intelligence expert stated that China’s authorities would also probably be preparing their people psychologically for the consequences of war: privation, tens of thousands of battle deaths, and civilian deaths from U.S. and Taiwan-launched strikes.

China sees Taiwan’s “unification” with the communist country as a goal that should, at the very least, be achieved through force. However, the populace of the democratic island hasn’t demonstrated much enthusiasm for joining political parties.