Goldman Sachs Cuts Auto Production Forecast

( With global chip shortages and other supply chain problems continuing to affect car production worldwide, Goldman Sachs has slashed its forecast for global car production for both 2021 and 2022.

Goldman Sachs now expects global production of 75 million vehicles this year – a drop from their previous forecast of 83 million. In 2022, Goldman projects 85 million vehicles rather than their previous forecast of 90 million.

According to Mark Delaney, an analyst at Goldman, the chip shortage is not improving and the semiconductor supply chain is opaque.

A research report from Susquehanna Financial Group released last week showed that chip delivery time in August increased by six days compared to July to about twenty-one weeks. This is the longest waiting time since Susquehanna began tracking the data in 2017.

Volkswagen, Daimler, BMW all issued pessimistic forecasts in early September that corporate manufacturers are likely to remain in short supply of chips and parts in the coming months or even years.

And on Thursday, three automakers, Opel, Volkswagen and Ford, announced new temporary closures of manufacturing sites in Germany citing the global chip shortage.

Opel has shut down manufacturing at its Eisenach factory in central Germany until 2022, provided the supply chain situation improves.

Volkswagen announced a nearly two-week stoppage beginning next week at its flagship plant in Wolfsburg, which had already curbed production in August.

Ford Motor Company, meanwhile, is pushing back the scheduled restart of production at its Cologne, Germany plant from October 1 to the end of October.

There was some good news, however.

Goldman Sachs believes that Tesla and GM will come out winners in this difficult industry environment, and has a “buy” rating on both of their stocks. Describing Tesla as an industry leader, Goldman believes it is in a good growth position. Likewise, Goldman sees GM as an attractive stock, citing the benefits of the industry’s recovery in production and the opportunity to benefit from electric cars and advanced driving assistance systems.

Tesla shares were up more than 2 percent by Monday’s close, while GM shares were up nearly 2 percent.