As China studies Russia’s tactics to evade Western sanctions, it sets the stage for a strategic move concerning Taiwan.
At a Glance
- China is monitoring Western sanctions on Russia to prepare for a potential invasion of Taiwan.
- An interagency group was formed in China after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 to study sanctions.
- Chinese officials frequently visit Moscow to learn from Russia’s experience with sanctions.
- Russia serves as a “sandbox” for China to understand handling sanctions.
China Learns from Russia’s Sanction Evasion
China is meticulously observing how Russia has managed to navigate the maze of sanctions imposed by the West since its invasion of Ukraine. China’s strategic analysis is driven by the potential need to deal with similar sanctions if it decides to take aggressive action toward Taiwan, a scenario that some analysts predict could unfold in the coming years.
By forming an interagency group, China seeks to absorb tactics Russia employs for sanctions evasion and learn how to mitigate their impact. This includes frequent visits to Moscow where Chinese officials aim to grasp Russia’s approach to sanctions and assess its possible application should China engage in conflict.
“For the Chinese, Russia is really a sandbox on how sanctions work and how to manage them,” said @AlexGabuev, director of @CarnegieRussia. “They know that if there is a Taiwan contingency, the tool kit that will be applied against them will be similar.”https://t.co/kDn0RLBnrI
— Jonathan Cheng (@JChengWSJ) December 2, 2024
Russia: The Testing Ground
Russia’s experience under sanctions is serving as a practical example for China, often described as a “sandbox” scenario. China is watching the negative impact on Russia’s economy —despite Russia employing intermediaries and trading with other countries—while also observing Russia’s domestic strategies. The strategic planning involves ensuring China isn’t caught off guard and that it escapes the pitfalls Russia faces.
Anyone studying China’s sanctions evasion, to prepare for 🇨🇳 ‘s bans, NTBs and economic coercion? 😎 https://t.co/aBGOn9ZCKI
— Dr Arvind Virmani (Phd) (@dravirmani) December 1, 2024
Aiming to Circumvent Sanctions
A crucial part of China’s study involves scrutinizing Russia’s techniques to circumvent sanctions. With initiatives aimed at boosting domestic production, China is very interested in discovering any advantageous effects of sanctions, such as potential domestic growth incentives. Understanding these strategies is vital to establishing a robust defense against sanctions that could threaten China’s economy.
China’s proactive analysis and preparation indicate that as Western powers continue to apply pressure through sanctions, large authoritarian states might be less intimidated by such measures.
