A strong push by President Trump for NATO members to double defense spending has secured commitments from almost all members, but his ambiguous stance on the mutual defense clause has left allies unsettled.
At a Glance
- NATO leaders in The Hague agreed to a new defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 2035, including a 3.5% core military focus and 1.5% for cyber and infrastructure
- Spain stood out by opting out, pledging only 2.1% and marking itself as the primary holdout
- Trump cast doubt on U.S. commitment to Article 5, saying it “depends on your definition”
- Secretary-General Mark Rutte brokered a compromise and lauded Trump’s role in pushing higher spending
- The summit was overshadowed by recent U.S. military action in Iran and Trump’s highlighting of it during discussions
Trump’s Bold Gambit on Spending
At the two-day summit beginning June 24 in The Hague, Trump successfully steered NATO toward a historic shift: raising the informal defense spending yardstick to 5% of GDP by 2035. Analysts describe this as a strategic win, reflecting Trump’s emphasis on a bigger European financial burden for shared security. Reuters reports that Spain refused to comply, maintaining its modest 2.1% commitment—prompting tension over the alliance’s unity.
Article 5: A Prominent Rift
Despite the spending breakthrough, Trump amplified longstanding unease by questioning NATO’s Article 5 commitment. En route to The Hague, he remarked, “depends on your definition,” triggering European disquiet over whether the U.S. would uphold mutual defense in case of an attack, according to AP News. NATO officials and diplomats expressed keenness for clarity, underscoring concerns that financial burden-sharing rhetoric might overshadow security guarantees.
Watch a report: Trump Questions NATO Commitment at Summit.
Rutte’s Role & Washington’s Defense Framing
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte played a central role, navigating between Trump’s demands and European hesitations. He reportedly suggested Trump take credit for the spending surge, easing the summit’s frictions. Politico reports that Rutte later praised Trump’s leadership in defense funding at a pre-summit dinner, even sharing a flattering text exchange publicly.
For European capitals, the new target offers a chance to upgrade military capabilities—particularly in cyber and infrastructure—even as the question of U.S. troop presence and force guarantees lingers.
Security Beyond Spending
While Trump’s push for spending gains headlines, his emphasis on recent U.S. strikes against Iran and the subsequent Israel ceasefire during summit events signals a broadened focus—blending financial demands with geopolitical influence. Allies are left weighing whether such displays of “muscle diplomacy” strengthen NATO or fracture trust when unilateral actions bypass broader consultation.
European Reaction & Russian Watch
European military planners are accelerating investments to meet the new spending target, edging nations like Poland and Germany closer to the 5% goal while smaller countries assess economic feasibility. But beneath the surface, there are concerns: will increased budgets truly translate into readiness—or are they inflated numbers masked by broader infrastructure claims? Russia, in turn, is voicing criticism, portraying NATO’s militarization as provocative, according to Reuters.
A Fragile Consensus
The Hague summit affirmed NATO’s financial rearmament—but the alliance remains fragile. Trump’s ambivalent commitment to Article 5 and his security-first messaging have offered fiscal gains at the potential cost of alliance cohesion. Secretary-General Rutte’s deft diplomacy helped avoid outright rupture, yet Europe grapples with how hard to lean on Washington in moments of crisis.
The alliance leaves The Hague flush with spending pledges, but still searching for clarity on the question that matters most: what happens if Article 5 is tested?
