The Taliban’s rule over Afghanistan is entering a new phase as Russia and China deepen engagement, raising global stakes amid economic woes, human rights concerns, and regional rivalries.
At a Glance
- Taliban governance under Haibatullah Akhundzada centralizes power and marginalizes minorities
- Over 90% of Afghans live in poverty amid stalled economic recovery
- Russia and China increase diplomatic and economic ties with Taliban
- Pakistan-Taliban tensions grow over the TTP’s presence in Afghanistan
- Formal recognition remains elusive, but regional engagement surges
Economic and Human Rights Challenges
Since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, supreme leader Haibatullah Akhundzada has overseen a regime marked by centralized religious rule and exclusionary policies dominated by southern Pashtun Taliban factions. According to Brookings Institution, the economic situation is dire, with over 90% of the population facing poverty, driven by suspended foreign aid and a collapsed banking system.
Although the Taliban has succeeded in reducing corruption and increasing domestic revenue collection, the group’s controversial ban on opium cultivation has crippled an already fragile rural economy. Human rights, particularly women’s rights, have regressed dramatically under the Taliban’s policies, though local resistance has slowed implementation in some areas.
Regional Diplomacy: China and Russia Lead
Despite lacking formal recognition, the Taliban has gained traction with powerful neighbors. OilPrice.com reports that China formally accepted a Taliban-appointed ambassador in 2024 and continues to pursue infrastructure and mining ventures in Afghanistan as part of the Belt and Road Initiative.
Russia, meanwhile, has removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations and is working toward full diplomatic relations. Its interest lies primarily in Afghanistan’s mineral and energy resources, including potential Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) deals, though logistical and security issues remain hurdles. According to analyst Fakhim Kukhdomani, “The Russian intelligence services never cut their contacts with Taliban commanders,” reflecting a long-running pragmatic approach.
India, while cautious, remains actively involved in regional discussions. Diplomatic talks among India, Russia, and Uzbekistan are focusing on transit trade and the development of a proposed trans-Afghan railway. As noted by Najib Azar, “India has keenly monitored the fluctuating relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan,” highlighting New Delhi’s strategic concerns.
Pakistan-Taliban Tensions Escalate
While Pakistan was once considered the Taliban’s key backer, their relationship has soured over the Taliban’s refusal to crack down on the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which conducts attacks across the border. Islamabad has accused the Taliban of providing safe haven to the group, prompting deportations of Afghan refugees and a shift in border policy. At the same time, the Taliban has been effective in containing the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP), reducing immediate threats to its rule.
This divergence in threat priorities has deepened mistrust between the Taliban and Pakistan’s military establishment. As highlighted by OilPrice, regional peace efforts are at risk as major powers engage the Taliban without resolving core security tensions.
Global Implications and Recognition Dilemma
Western nations remain hesitant to fully engage, citing continued human rights abuses. The U.S., UK, and Germany maintain only limited diplomatic channels. Nonetheless, incremental engagement by China and Russia raises the stakes for international legitimacy. “There’s a growing feeling that the great powers are starting to compete among themselves to recognize a terrorist organization,” said Fakhim Kukhdomani in an interview cited by OilPrice.
As Afghanistan risks becoming a stage for great power competition, the Taliban faces increasing pressure to navigate a delicate balance: pursuing regional legitimacy while managing internal fissures and economic stagnation.
