Russia’s military withdrawal from Syria faces a major setback as a cargo ship carrying troops and equipment breaks down at sea, complicating an already challenging geopolitical situation.
At a Glance
- Russia is withdrawing military equipment from its Hmeimim air base in Syria
- A Russian cargo ship, Sparta, carrying military equipment from Syria, broke down near Portugal
- The collapse of Assad’s regime has prompted Russia to reevaluate its presence in Syria
- Russia faces challenges in relocating its military installations to Africa
- The loss of the Tartus base could weaken Russia’s Mediterranean influence and global image
Russian Military Withdrawal from Syria Underway
Recent satellite images from Maxar, dated December 13, reveal that Russia is in the process of withdrawing military equipment from its Hmeimim air base in Syria. The images show two Antonov AN-124 cargo planes on the tarmac, prepared to load equipment, and a Ka-52 attack helicopter being dismantled for transport. Additionally, parts of an S-400 air defense unit are being readied for departure.
Russia’s presence in Syria has been substantial, with approximately 7,500 troops and multiple military sites, including the Hmeimim air base and naval facilities at Tartus. However, the situation has changed dramatically following the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militant group on December 8.
Russian withdrawal from Syria is picking up steam. https://t.co/Af6Ur95vkm
— John Spencer (@SpencerGuard) December 14, 2024
Logistical Challenges and Setbacks
The Russian withdrawal effort has encountered a significant obstacle. A Russian cargo ship, Sparta, tasked with evacuating weapons and equipment from Syria, experienced a mechanical failure while at sea. The ship is currently drifting near Portugal due to a fuel pipe failure in its main engine, further complicating Russia’s military withdrawal from Syria.
“The cargo ship Sparta, which Russia sent to evacuate its weapons and equipment from Syria, broke down while underway—the fuel pipe of the main engine failed,” Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) reported on Monday. “The Russian crew is trying to fix the problem and is drifting in the open sea near Portugal.”
This setback underscores the logistical challenges Russia faces in withdrawing its military assets following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The Kremlin is now focused on securing its remaining military bases and diplomatic missions in Syria, consolidating forces around Khmeimim Air Base and Tartus Naval Base.
Geopolitical Implications and Future Strategies
As Russia reassesses its military strategy in the region, it is reportedly attempting to transfer some of its military installations to Africa. However, this effort is meeting resistance from local entities. Libya’s Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh has stated that the country “will not accept the entry of any foreign force except through official agreements and for the purpose of training.”
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that the loss of the Tartus base could significantly weaken Russia’s Mediterranean influence and global image. ISW analysts noted, “Russia could seek to leverage its presence in Libya or Sudan as alternatives, but the lack of formal agreements with these countries and insufficient infrastructure makes them inadequate substitutes. The collapse of Assad’s regime and Russia’s inability to preserve the regime will also damage Russia’s global image as a reliable ally, threatening its influence with African autocrats whom Russia seeks to support and its broader geopolitical objective to posture as a global superpower.”
As the situation continues to unfold, it remains unclear whether Russia’s withdrawal from Syria will be partial or complete.
The coming weeks will be crucial in determining Russia’s future role in the region and its ability to maintain strategic footholds in a post-Assad landscape.
