Taiwan is bracing for a potential Chinese invasion within the next three years. The island nation’s military has revamped its largest annual war games to simulate a full-scale attack from Beijing by 2027 – meaning Trump may still be president when China tries its luck.
At a glance:
• Taiwan’s military will simulate a full-scale Chinese invasion for the first time, targeting 2027 as the potential year for attack
• U.S. intelligence believes Chinese President Xi Jinping aims to be capable of launching a major Taiwan assault by 2027
• Taiwan’s Han Kuang military exercises will extend live-fire drills to 10 days, focusing on countering Chinese “gray-zone” tactics
• President Lai Ching-te has committed to increasing defense spending to 3% of GDP despite political opposition
• China has intensified military pressure on Taiwan with large-scale exercises and frequent warplane incursions into Taiwan’s airspace
Taiwan Prepares for Chinese Aggression
Taiwan’s military establishment is taking the threat of a Chinese invasion seriously, aligning with longstanding concerns from Washington about Beijing’s territorial ambitions. The island democracy has officially identified 2027 as a potential year for a Chinese invasion, marking the first official mention of a specific timeline for a possible attack.
Taiwanese Defense Ministry recently released documents outlining war games that will simulate a full-scale Chinese military attack on the island nation. These updated Han Kuang exercises represent a significant shift in Taiwan’s defense posture, reflecting growing concerns about Chinese President Xi Jinping’s aggressive military buildup.
China’s Expanding Military Threat
China considers Taiwan its territory and has dramatically increased military activities around the island, heightening tensions in the region. Xi Jinping has established 2027 as the deadline for the People’s Liberation Army to become a “modern military” capable of projecting power throughout the Indo-Pacific.
Recent Chinese military drills near Taiwan were labeled by the United States as “brazen and irresponsible threats” against the democratic island. The Communist regime has conducted increasingly aggressive air and naval operations in the Taiwan Strait, including regular incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.
Beijing’s officials have intensified their rhetoric regarding Taiwan, emphasizing what they call the “inevitable reunification of the motherland,” according to senior Chinese Communist Party official Wang Huning. This heightened language comes as China has conducted unprecedented military exercises following visits by American officials to the island.
Bolstering Defense Capabilities
Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te has committed to raising defense spending to 3% of GDP, despite opposition from the legislature. This increase reflects the growing urgency Taiwan faces as China rapidly expands its military capabilities.
The Han Kuang exercise’s live-fire drill component will be extended to 10 days, focusing specifically on countering Chinese gray-zone tactics. Taiwan’s military leadership acknowledges they must prepare for worst-case scenarios and implement immediate countermeasures at the first warning signs of Chinese aggression.
“The Han Kuang Exercise always sets a timeline of one to two years in the future because the acquisition of new weapons and training require repeated drills for validation,” Defense Minister Wellington Koo said. Koo downplayed the specific significance of 2027 but acknowledged the PLA’s rapid transition capabilities pose a serious threat to Taiwan’s security.
The 2027 date may be accurate, but it may also serve as a general guideline for Taiwan. The reality is that nobody really knows when China will strike, but they might be wise to wait until Trump leaves office. And if they’re lucky, they’ll end up with a President as useless as Joe Biden was.
