Trump Just Keeps On Flipping Democrat Counties in Pennsylvania

Donald Trump’s political influence in Pennsylvania has been notable, as several historically Democratic counties in the state have gradually flipped to the Republican side, especially since the 2016 election. This transformation is part of a broader national trend, with rural and working-class areas shifting toward Republican dominance. Trump’s success in Pennsylvania is no coincidence. It’s the result of persistent grassroots efforts, effective campaigning, and the mobilization of Republican voters in key areas—much of it driven by activists like Scott Presler.

Going into 2024, Pennsylvania is looking redder than ever.

Pennsylvania’s Shift Toward Trump

Pennsylvania has long been a battleground state, often serving as a barometer for national elections. Trump won the state in 2016 by about 44,000 votes, marking the first time since 1988 that a Republican presidential candidate had carried Pennsylvania. His 2020 loss by approximately 80,000 votes was closer than many predicted, considering the state’s traditional Democratic strongholds in urban areas such as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. However, what stood out in both elections was the Republican surge in rural and working-class counties, many of which had been Democratic strongholds for decades.

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Counties like Luzerne and Bucks, which once boasted large Democratic majorities, have seen their voter registration rolls tilt toward the Republican side in recent years. Luzerne, where Democrats had once held a commanding lead, now has more registered Republicans than Democrats. This shift has been part of a broader effort by grassroots activists to capitalize on dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party in these regions, particularly on issues like jobs, trade, immigration, and the economy—issues that Trump has successfully made central to his platform.

Scott Presler’s Grassroots Efforts

One of the key figures in flipping these Democratic counties is Scott Presler, a Republican activist who has made it his mission to register Republican voters and engage conservative communities across the country. Since January, Presler has focused heavily on Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state for the 2024 election. His work is part of Early Vote Action, a group dedicated to registering voters early and encouraging them to cast their ballots before Election Day.

Presler’s strategy is simple yet effective: meet people where they are. He has spent months crisscrossing Pennsylvania, visiting places like farmers’ markets, gun stores, fraternity houses, and community events—essentially, locations that cater to conservative, rural populations. For example, the Green Dragon Farmers Market in Lancaster County has been a key stop for Presler. This market draws local Amish and Mennonite communities, which lean heavily Republican but are not always politically active. By engaging these voters and helping them register, Presler has been able to significantly boost Republican numbers in traditionally conservative but often underrepresented areas.

His efforts are particularly important in counties like Bucks and Luzerne, which had long been Democratic strongholds but have shifted to Republican majorities. In Bucks County, Presler claims credit for helping flip the area from a 15,000-voter Democratic majority to a Republican majority of nearly 2,000 voters within four years. Likewise, in Luzerne County, once dominated by Democrats, Republicans now have an 83-voter lead.

Presler has also made inroads in Centre County, home to Penn State University, where younger, more progressive voters typically keep the county in the Democratic column. Despite this, Presler remains optimistic, stating that Centre County is “1,100 voters away from flipping.” His persistence in attending Penn State football games, tailgates, and other local events aims to reach younger voters, many of whom may be struggling with economic issues such as student debt and the rising cost of living—concerns that Presler believes Trump’s platform can address.

Impact on 2024 and Beyond

The registration shift in Pennsylvania reflects a broader realignment of the state’s political landscape. Five counties—Beaver, Berks, Bucks, Fayette, and Luzerne—have flipped from Democratic to Republican since 2020. This movement is significant, as Pennsylvania remains one of the most crucial swing states in national elections.

These counties are strategically important because of their location outside major metropolitan areas like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, where Democrats typically perform well. By flipping these counties, Republicans are essentially creating a buffer to offset the Democratic strongholds in urban centers. This makes winning Pennsylvania more feasible for Trump or any Republican candidate in 2024, as the registration gap between Republicans and Democrats narrows.

Why the Shift?

The shift in these counties can be attributed to several factors:

  1. Economic Concerns: Many voters in rural and working-class counties are concerned about the economy, particularly inflation, jobs, and the cost of living. Trump’s “America First” rhetoric, promises to bring back jobs, and focus on reducing regulations resonate strongly in these areas.
  2. Immigration and Border Security: Trump’s hardline stance on immigration continues to appeal to voters in counties where concerns about illegal immigration and national security are prominent.
  3. Dissatisfaction with Democrats: Some traditionally Democratic voters feel abandoned by the party, particularly on issues related to trade and manufacturing, which have long been critical in Pennsylvania. Trump’s focus on renegotiating trade deals like NAFTA plays well in these areas.
  4. Grassroots Mobilization: Activists like Scott Presler have played an instrumental role in ensuring that disaffected Democrats or those who have never voted before are registered and ready to vote Republican. His “meet them where they are” strategy has successfully engaged rural and conservative voters who may not otherwise have participated in the election process.

Looking Ahead

As Pennsylvania continues to trend red, the role of grassroots efforts like those led by Presler will be crucial in determining the outcome of the 2024 election. While Democrats still have strongholds in urban areas, the flipping of rural and suburban counties could tip the balance in favor of Trump or another Republican candidate. If Republicans maintain or even expand their voter registration leads in counties like Luzerne, Bucks, and Centre, they could secure a critical advantage in this battleground state.

Trump’s ability to flip Democratic counties in Pennsylvania demonstrates not only his continued influence within the Republican Party but also the effectiveness of targeted, grassroots efforts to reshape the political map. With Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes at stake in 2024, the ongoing shift in voter registration numbers is a sign that the Keystone State could once again be key to determining the next president of the United States.