U.S. Navy faces a massive strike capacity gap, losing over 2,000 Tomahawk missile cells with no quick replacements amid escalating threats from China and Iran.
Story Snapshot
- Retirement of four Ohio-class SSGN submarines eliminates 616 Tomahawk vertical launch system cells by 2028.
- Ticonderoga-class cruisers phase out starting 2026, shedding 1,220 more cells across 10 ships.
- Virginia-class submarine production lags at 1.1-1.2 boats per year, far below needs for Indo-Pacific deterrence.
- Operation Epic Fury in Iran burns through stocks rapidly, exposing vulnerabilities in high-end conflicts.
- President Trump’s Navy must prioritize industrial base fixes to avoid self-inflicted weaknesses against adversaries.
Submarine Capacity Vanishes by 2028
Four Ohio-class guided-missile submarines—USS Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and Georgia—retire by 2028, each carrying 154 Tomahawk vertical launch system cells for a total loss of 616. Converted in the early 2000s after arms reduction treaties, these stealth platforms delivered precise strikes for two decades. Navy leadership acknowledges the capacity drop but claims existing vertical launch systems suffice for current stockpiles. Defense analyst Isaac Seitz warns this creates the steepest strike capacity trough in the late 2020s, precisely when China tensions peak. Conservatives demand accountability for this gap that undermines deterrence.
Cruiser Retirements Compound the Crisis
Ticonderoga-class cruisers begin retiring in 2026, including USS Shiloh and Lake Erie, with each ship losing 122 vertical launch cells. Across approximately 10 vessels, this erases 1,220 cells, pushing total losses toward 2,080 by the early 2030s. Surface ships increasingly reserve cells for defense missiles, leaving submarines as the main Tomahawk carriers. Production delays at shipyards like General Dynamics Electric Boat stem from workforce shortages and competition with Columbia-class builds. This self-inflicted shortfall prioritizes unproven modernization over proven strike power.
Production Delays Leave Navy Exposed
Virginia-class Block V submarines, equipped with Virginia Payload Modules for 40 Tomahawks each, produce at just 1.1-1.2 boats annually versus the required 2.33. Government Accountability Office reports confirm shortfalls due to supplier issues and Columbia overruns, delaying SSN(X) to the 2040s. FY2025 procures only 72 Tomahawks, dropping to 57 in FY2026, with output at 90 per year taking two years per unit. RTX Corporation secured a deal to ramp to over 1,000 annually, but skeptics question unproven scale amid Iran depletions.
Operation Epic Fury against Iran since March 2026 fired over 400 Tomahawks in 72 hours, roughly 10% of inventory at 168 per 100 hours. This rate outpaces replenishment, straining stocks needed for China scenarios and AUKUS commitments. Experts like Seitz and Buckby call the gap self-inflicted, urging SSGN life extensions similar to the Nimitz carrier precedent. Navy counters that Maritime Strike Tomahawk reaches early capability in FY2025, but critics argue it ignores high-end war demands where surface fleets prioritize defense.
President Trump’s administration inherits this mess from prior mismanagement, with shipyard delays and low procurement eroding naval superiority. Indo-Pacific allies face deterrence holes, shipyard workers endure instability, and Congress eyes scrutiny of Navy planning. Economic fallout includes rushed upgrade costs benefiting contractors like RTX, while political pressure mounts to rebuild the industrial base. Failure risks heightened war chances if adversaries exploit the void. Common sense demands swift action to restore American strength.
Sources:
The U.S. Navy Is Losing 616 Tomahawk Missile Cells and Has No Way to Replace Them in Time
The U.S. Navy’s Self-Inflicted Tomahawk Cruise Missile Shortage
1220 Tomahawk Missile Cells Gone: The U.S. Navy Is Retiring Its Most Powerful Strike Platforms
US Burned Through More Tomahawks in Iran Than It May Need for China
US Navy Hit by 2080 Tomahawk Loss: Ohio-Class Submarine Delay
Kyiv Post Article on Tomahawk Usage
Is US Defense Industrial Base Building Enough Tomahawk Missiles?
Tomahawks Keep War at a Distance—Until Stocks Run Out
















