The 2024 election rests on four states, according to new projections. The four states are reportedly Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Wisconsin, which are four states that former President Donald Trump alleged contained election fraud. The key battleground states, which total 56 Electoral College points will come down to whether there is a third-party ticket or the voting preference of suburban, moderate, and Latino voters, according to The Cook Political Report.
Trump was beaten by Biden in each of these states in 2020. But only narrowly. Biden was ahead in Georgia by 0.2, in Arizona by 0.3 points, in Wisconsin by 0.7 points, and in Pennsylvania by 1.2 points.
Michigan and Nevada are reportedly leaning Democrat, whereas North Carolina is leaning Republican. But more certain Democratic wins include Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Nebraska. Other states likely to vote Republican include the second district of Maine, Florida, and Texas.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball also speculates that 2024 will be a rematch between Biden and Trump. But the nonpartisan report replaces Pennsylvania with Nevada as a “tossup state.” While Nevada has voted Democrat in the last four cycles, that margin has been shrinking, according to the report. Former President Barack Obama won the state in 2008 by 12.4 points, but in 2012 that shrunk to 6.6 points. In 2016, Hillary won it by 2.4 points and Biden won it by the same number four years later.
Another prediction from the report gives Democrats “at least” 260 electoral points, whereas Republicans will get “at least” 235. If neither candidate reaches the desired 270 points to secure the presidency, then the vote will go to the House of Representatives, where it is likely a GOP nominee will win.
The report also notes that despite Biden’s low approval numbers and Trump’s several challenges from the Justice Department, it is likely that both candidates will receive their party’s nominations.